Deeper decline is in favor for EUR

Deeper decline is in favor and next target would be at 1.3900 or even lower. Near term resistance is at 1.4125, as long a this level holds, downtrend will continue.

Net Lending to Individuals data will be released today

The Net Lending to Individuals data is expected to be positive and push up the GBP today. The data will be released at 8:30 am GMT. The forecast is 1.0B which indicates a rising debt level and it is a sign that lenders feel comfortable issuing loans, and that consumers are confident in their financial position and eager to spend money.

Current price of GBP/USD 1.6445 and a rally up to a level of 1.6500 could be seen after the data is released.

CBI Realized Sales data will be released today

CBI Realized Sales data will be released today at 11:00 am GMT. It's a leading indicator of consumer spending because retailer and wholesaler sales are directly influenced by consumer buying levels. The expetations are negative and it may downtrend the GBP short after the data is released.

Sales of new homes rise and uptrend the USD

Sales of new homes in the U.S. in June rose by the biggest amount since November 2008, climbing by 11% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 384,000, the Commerce Department reported today.

The data was released at 2:00 pm GMT when the price of EUR/USD was trading at the price of about 1.4260. Short after the announcement the USD gained profit and the currency pair EUR/USD downtrend to the price of 1.4420 at 2:45 pm GMT. (profit of 40 pips)

Possible break to 1.4280 for EUR

The current price of EUR/USD is: 1.4226. The GfK German Consumer Climate data will be released today at 6:00 am GMT and the expectations are positive and the EUR will most likely test to reach a level of 1.4280

Comment:
Position EUR/USD bought at the price of 1.4230 at 4:40 am GMT and position sold at level 1.4285 at 11:10 am GMT (profit of 55 pips)

New Home Sales data could uptrend the USD

The new home sales data will be announced today at 2:00 pm GMT. It's a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a new home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect.

Deeper decline is now in favor for EUR

The current price of EUR/USD is 1.4155 and deeper decline is now in favor and next target would be at 1.3900 zone.

However, the German Info Business Climate data will be released today at 8:00 am GMT and the expectations indicates an economic recovery which may uptrend the EUR towards a level of 1.4250 at some point later on today.

Comment:
Position taken at level 1.4160 and position sold at level 1.4240 at 10:15 am GMT (profit of 80 pips)

Retail sales and mortgage approvals could push the GBP

After falling last time by 0.6%, Retail Sales are predicted to rise by 0.4%. This figure is published today at 8:30 am GMT.

Also today the mortgage approval data will be released at the same time and now, expectations are high - the bulls want to see an even higher figure - 33.3K. If expectations are met here and at the Rightmove HPI, this could push the Pound higher.

Current price GBP/USD 1.6474

Current account balance data could be negative for EUR

The current account balance data will be released today at 8am (GMT) and the forecast shows negative numbers (-3.6B) which indicates decreasing surplus and it may be negative for the European currency.

Current price EUR/USD at 4:47am (GMT) is 1.4233 and some bullish movements are still in favour up to a level of 1.4250.
However, after the current account balance data is released the currency pair could test downtrend to a level of 1.4150

USD/JPY with possible downturn today

USD/JPY will probably test some bearish movements throughout the day related to the Mitsubishi Groups issuance of USD equity.

Current price at 4:50 am (GMT) is 93.67

CBI Industrial Order will be released today

The CBI Industrial Order data will be released today at 10am (GMT) and the expectations are not very positive for the british currency. This indicator has brought bad news since the beginning of the year. It could affect again the pound in some negative direction after the data is released.

Public Sector Net Borrowing could be slightly negetive for GBP

The Public Sector Net Borrowing data will be released today at 8:30m am (GMT) . The number expected from the data is positive (17.5B) which could slightly downturn the GBP since that positve number indicates a budget deficit.

EUR/USD is trading at about 1.4200 at 4:21 am GMT

EUR/USD current prices is 1.4200 and some bullish movement could be seen later on today close to a level of 1.4260

EUR/JPY has reached 1.3400

The currency pair has reached level of 1.3400 and it seems likely to go up to a level of about 1.3420 later on today. There is a bank holiday in Japan today and the lack of sellers is a fact which may be negative for the JPY.

Possible level of 1.4190 for EUR/USD today

Currently, at 4:36am GMT, EUR/USD is 1.4158 and uptrend to a level of 1.4190 looks positive at some point later on today. If that level is reached then a downturn to a possible level of 1.3900 could be expected.

Markets in US closed uptrend on Friday

Markets in US gained profits. For example the Cruide Oil was uptrended and it seems to be a strong sing of recovery. The american currency rose against the Yen on Friday as well.


More news coming up for the next week economic events which will affect the major currency pairs on the forex market.

AUD/USD tests resistance at 0.7980

The currency pair could test another rally up to 0.8050 at some point later on today.

An alternative scenario, AUD/USD could be seen to 0.7800-0.7850 area.

EUR/USD could find resistance at about 1.4150 today

EUR/USD is likely to find resistance at about 1.4150 later on today.

Daily analysis

The ZEW Economic Expectations data is expected today at 10:00am GMT and the forecast is positive for the CHF.

Later on today at 2:00pm GMT another data for the TIC Long-Term Purchases will be released which may be in favor for the american currency.

GBP is still in uptrend favor. 1.6500 looks like a possible level to reached at some point later on today.

EUR is still moving sideways today

Current level of EUR/USD is 1.3982 at 5:40am GMT and I expect that the pair could test a level of 1.3800 later on today.

The Capacity Utilization Rate data will be released today at 2:15pm GMT. It is a leading indicator of consumer inflation and the forecast looks positive for the american currency which could downtrend the EUR after the data is released.

Claimant Count Change could be positive for the GBP

Claimant Count Change data will be released today at 9:30am GMT and it is expected to have a positive reaction over the british currency. The release is highly significant as it is one of the economic data releases that are used to measure the health of the British economy.

Current level of GBP/USD is 1.6317 at 5:37am GMT and I suppose that after the data is released to test level of 1.6400.


Comment:
I have bought a position GBP/USD at 1.6317 level

Daily analysis for the GBP, July 14

The GBP/USD gained about 45 pips during and after the CPI was announced today at 9:30am GMT.

However, the GBP/USD took a downturn with about 50 pips after the Producer Price Index (PPI) was published and it had a positive impact over the USD.

Now at 7:20pm GMT the currency pair GBP/USD is in the range 1.6250 - 1.6266 with possible bearish movement in the next a few hours.

Consumer Price Index may be positive for GBP

Consumer Price Index report will be announced today at 9:30 am GMT. The forecast shows that the UK inflation is set to a fall which may have a bullish effect to the british currency.

German ZEW Economic Sentiment may uptrend the EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment is scheduled today at 10am GMT and the forecast is postive which may uptrend the EUR.

EUR/USD has formed a resistance around 1.3980.

However, with the German ZEW Economic Sentiment report, the level of 1.4000 may be reached.

RICS House Price Balance could be bearish for GBP

At 12am GMT on Tuesday, July 14, the RICS House Price Balance data will be published. The forecast is -39.6% which is a negative number and will most likely indicates more surveyors reported a fall in prices.

Bearish movement for the USD

The american currency experienced a downtrend after the Federal Budget Balance announcement was made today at 7pm GMT.

The negative numbers of -94.3B indicated a deficit of about $1 trillion. The american currency took a downtrend after the news.

GBP/USD current level 1.6115 at 5:35am GMT

With the possible negative bias of the Federal Budget Balance for the USD today, I suppose that the currency pair could reach the level of 1.6200 at some point later on today.
However, if the currency pair break down below 1.5900 it may signal deeper decline to test 1.5850.

Comment:
I have bought position at 1.6115 with a tendency to reach level 1.6200 later on today.

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Comment:
I have sold the position at 1.6180 with a profit of 65 pips at 5pm GMT

Federal Budget Balance on Monday, July 13 at 7:00pm GMT

The meeting will announce the difference in value between the federal government's income and spending during the previous month. A positive number indicates a budget surplus, a negative number indicates a deficit. The forecast as of today, it shows a negative number -65.5B which would be most likely negative for the USD.

ECB President Trichet Speaks on Monday, July 13 at 11:30am GMT

Volatility is often experienced during his speeches as traders attempt to decipher interest rate clues. He has more influence over the euro's value than any other person. The ECB controls short term interest rates.

1.6400 level is possible for the GBP

Current level 1.6324 at 5:45am GMT and it is most likely GBP to reach level of 1.6400 later on today.

The trade balance and the imported prices meetings for the USD are scheduled for today at 1:30pm GMT and the forecast is in favor for the american currency.

The GBP flies:

The Bank of England surprised markets by announcing no expansion of its quantitative easing scheme on Thursday as it left interest rates unchanged at a record low of 0.5 percent for a fourth month running.

After the announcement the british pound flied from level 1.6080 up to about 1.6300. The uptrend is in flavor.

Jobless Rate in Australia may be negative for the AUD.

The meeting is scheduled for 2:30am GMT and most likely the report would downtrend the AUD as the jobless rate is expected to go up to 5.9%

Crude Oil Inventories could downturn the USD.

Crude Oil Inventories is taking place today at 3PM GMT and the forecast is about -2.8M which would downturn the USD and could uptrend the EUR.

Final Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could downturn the EUR.

The final GDP is scheduled today for 10AM GMT. It is released quarterly, and the forcast is about -2.5% which most likely will downturn the EUR.

EUR/USD Analysis - July 7, 2009

The currency pair is in the trading range between 1.3880 and 1.4020. Deeper decline is expected at about 1.3748 level today. An alternative scenario could be further rebound to 1.4120-1.4140 area.

Comment:
I have bought position at 1.3974 level at 5.31am GMT and a current profit of 10 pips has been confirmed. Will expect level of 1.3990 to sell the position.

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- Level of 1.3990 reached at 11.00am GMT leaving with a profit of 16 pips.

Australian Job Advertisements Fell 6.7% in June, ANZ Bank Says

Australian advertisements for job vacancies tumbled in June for a 14th month, adding to signs the nation’s economy is being buffeted by the global recession.

AUD/USD had a downtrend with about 20 pips after the announcement was made.

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI on Monday, July 6

Service industries in the U.S. will probably downtrend the USD since the indicators are expected to be below 50 which will indicate contraction.

Meeting is scheduled for 3pm GMT on Monday, July 6

ECB President Trichet Speaks on Sunday, July 5

Volatility is often experienced during his speeches as traders attempt to decipher interest rate clues. EUR could be go in a negative or positive direction depending on his speech.

CPI indicates prices continue to fall in June.

Switzerland's Federal Statistical Office said the consumer price index dropped 1% year-on-year in June, the same as in May. CHF is in quiet trade, with EUR-CHF going around under the 1.5200 level.

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